On Dec. 2nd I wrote that, “I think it’s pretty safe to say that if All-Star reserves were picked today, [Josh] Smith would once again be left off the team, and that it would elicit less controversy than it has the past two seasons.” At the time, Smith was shooting 22% on about six shot attempts per game outside the paint.
On Jan. 24th, All-Star reserves were announced. To the surprise of exactly nobody, Smith was not named. Smith himself, although he has since gone on his annual post-snub tear, barely said a word about it. He seemed resigned to what is apparently the prevailing attitude among reserve voters: “You keep chuckin’, we’ll keep snubin’.”
A closer look will show that a shooting slump by Smith coincided with a period from Jan. 4-19 during which the team lost eight of the nine contests in which Smith played. By the time the Hawks beat the Hornets on Jan 1st to get back to 10 games over .500, Smith had raised his percentage outside the paint to 29% for the season (54-for-186). Over Smith’s next nine games, he shot 24% outside the paint (13-for-54) on almost seven attempts per game. The only Hawks win during that stretch in which Smith appeared was Jan. 11th against the Jazz. The Hawks also beat the Nets on Jan. 16th but Smith missed the game due to suspension.
To date, Smith has raised his shooting percentage to 30% (96-for-316) outside the paint on 6.6 shot attempts per game. The Hawks presently rank 28th in the league in total shots attempted (about 80 per game). Thus, Smith’s 6.6 jumpers per game accounts for about 8% of the Hawks’ total offense for the season.
So who is responsible for Smith taking all these inefficient jumpers? Does Josh shoot jumpers because of his placement in Larry Drew’s offense? Or is Smith going rogue and defying Drew by drifting outside? It’s kind of like the chicken-or-the-egg argument because we really don’t know. We can only guess that the reasons behind the recent tension between Smith and Drew have something to do with shot selection.
If Smith’s suspension was a result of his refusal to play within the team concept, it may be time for him to go. But regardless of whether Smith has defied Drew or not, I will make the argument that Drew’s shortcomings as a coach make it time for him to go as well.
You will perhaps recall this quote from Larry Drew during Media Day:
I don’t think there is any question about Josh’s ability to be an All-Star. It’s up to me to try to get him there.
In 2009-10, the Hawks’ last season under Mike Woodson, Smith attempted only seven 3-pointers. Since then, he has attempted 373, over 100 per season. The fact that Woodson was able to curb Smith’s outside shooting shows that Smith is coachable when it comes to shot selection. The fact that Smith has shot over 100 3-pointers per season since Woodson departed indicates that Drew has either given Smith the green light or Smith isn’t listening to Drew. In either case, my opinion has not changed since March of last year when I wrote that Drew was the wrong choice.
Further, Smith’s shot selection is not solely to blame for the sense of disappointment many feel over the Hawks’ slide from 3rd to 6th in the Eastern Conference since Jan. 1st. Think about this. If Chicago and Indiana both lose tonight (unlikely, but work with me) and the Hawks win, Atlanta would be only one game out of 3rd in the East. Think about what a small margin it is between the disappointment the Hawks are feeling now and the elation the franchise would feel if it went to the All-Star break in 3rd place in the conference. The difference between disappointment and elation at this point is two or three losses.
So let’s look at some winnable games that the Hawks lost and consider how the outcome might have been different.
Nov. 9th vs. Miami
Jeff Teague went to the bench with 4 minutes to play in the 3rd and the Hawks trailing 64-62. When he returned with 8 minutes left in the game, the Hawks trailed 81-73. I once called Drew the “master extinguisher of the hot hand.” In this game, Lou Williams, Devin Harris and DeShawn Stevenson combined to play 63 minutes, shoot 2-for-16 and score 9 points. Anthony Morrow was 6-for-11 with 17 points. He played only 15 minutes.
Blame the loss on: Drew resting Teague, presumably for more important games down the road, and Drew placing Morrow in a season-long dog house.
Nov. 30th vs. Cleveland
Smith failed to box out Alonzo Gee, who put back a missed Dion Waiters 3-pointer with one second left to give the Cavs the win.
Blame the loss on: Smith for ball watching on Waiters’ shot and for having the worst +/- among the starters (-14) except DeShawn Stevenson (-15). The Hawks presently have a losing record, 8-9, with Stevenson in the starting lineup. Stevenson has started in almost half of the Hawks’ 22 losses.
Jan. 4th @ Detroit
This was the game where the Hawks lost that lovin’ feeling from the 20-10 start. The Hawks would lose 8-of-10 starting with this 1-point loss.
Blame the loss on: Smith for shooting 1-for-7 outside the paint and being the only starter with a negative +/- (-6). Equal blame can go to Drew for making rookie John Jenkins the first player off the bench. In just under seven minutes spanning the end of the first and start of the second quarter, the Hawks were outscored by 15 points with Jenkins (who finished -18) on the floor.
Jan. 27th @ New York
This one hurt the worst. After the buzz-killing stretch in early January that cost Smith a shot at an All-Star selection, the Hawks had a chance to pick up another quality win against a contending team. A win in New York might have flipped the entire conversation about the Hawks from disappointment to (once again) surprise team in the conference.
Blame the loss on: Drew, for twice sending Jannero Pargo in to run the offense when Devin Harris was available. During Pargo’s first stint, a tie became a 6-point deficit. During Pargo’s second stint, a 3-point deficit became an 8-point deficit. The Hawks lost by two.
2 questions:
1) So it seems from the tone of this post, and theme of your earlier post regarding Josh Smith deserving max money, that you are advocating the re-signing of Smith no matter the cost, and the firing of Larry Drew. If that is your stance, who would you like to see Ferry bring in to coach the Hawks, or at least what would you be looking for from the new coach? If you were doing the interviews, what would win you over?
2) Given Josh Smith’s stance that he deserves max money, and the Hawks ability to re-sign him for more years and money than any other team, do you think Smith would take less money to stay with the Hawks. For example, the most the Hawks could offer is a 5 year deal worth $94 million, while other teams can only offer a 4 year deal worth $70 million. What if the offer is a 5 year deal at say $80 million, or even split the difference and offer $87 million? is that type of deal even possible, and would it be enough to keep Smith around?
1. I’m really not sure if the Hawks should extend a max offer to Josh because I am not privy to what’s going on behind the scenes. On the one hand, I think they need to extend him so they can then trade him. He will be a much more trade-able asset than Joe was. However, if he’s becoming a locker room cancer, that could get out to the rest of the league and then you’re stuck with a malcontent.
The other end of the spectrum is that the new CBA requires you to spend something like 90% of the cap. That means if they let Josh walk and have all this cap space, they have to sign SOMEBODY to meet the cap floor. Dallas proved that hoarding cap space is not always the way to a championship. They would have been much better off keeping Chandler, who wanted to stay. The Knicks would be a middle of the pack team right now without Chandler and Dallas would have been contenders last year.
As far as the coach, I’m an advocate of Brian Shaw. He was the hand-picked successor of the greatest coach in the history of the sport, Phil Jackson. Larry Bird, one of the greatest executives in the modern game, has tried to help him advance his career. Kobe and Shaq both fully endorse him. He has the respect of several to 20 all time players. He will have the respect of any current players he ends up coaching.
To me, Brian Shaw is a no-brainer. Unfortunately, I’m not sure if Ferry has a relationship with him or any basis of trust. More likely, Ferry will hire someone from Pop’s coaching tree. I don’t know who that would be. I just hope he doesn’t bring in Mike Brown because, as much respect as Shaw has around the league, Brown doesn’t have much of any at this point.
2. Josh is mad at the Hawks for suspending him and leaking details of the suspension to the public. His representation is calling around the league letting front offices know that he doesn’t want to stay with Atlanta. He’s hurt the Hawks bargaining position by publicly stating his perceived value and hurting the market for his services. Rumor is that he doesn’t want a trade, he wants to reach free agency and have his ass kissed by half the teams in the league.
None of this means he won’t re-sign with the Hawks. But he’s not in the mood right now to do the Hawks any favors. So I would say the only way Smith re-signs is on a max offer. Anything less than that and he will take less to sign elsewhere so the Hawks get nothing, unless it’s a sign and trade to his preferred destination. If Smith wants to be somewhere else, he’s not going to help the Hawks take assets away from the team that he wants to end up on.
Assistant coach helps Paul George blossom into Pacers star
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/pacers/2013/02/13/paul-george-brian-shaw-blossoming-star/1918215/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UsatodaycomNba-TopStories+%28Sports+-+NBA+-+Top+Stories%29
With much in common, Indiana Pacers associate head coach Brian Shaw and swingman Paul George have developed a strong relationship marked by an open line of communication no matter whether the subject is positive or negative.
George also credits Shaw, along with head coach Frank Vogel, for helping him become an All-Star in just his third year in the league.
“He’s really helped me out,” George said of Shaw. “He’s the one that gets on me. If I’m not playing well, if things aren’t going right, and he knows I’m the reason for it, he’ll let me hear about it.”
Like I said, no-brainer.
one last question:
With all the Josh Smith trade talk out there right now, and with all the Eric Bledsoe trade talk out there, why is no one talking about a JSmoove for Erice Bledsoe & Deandre Jordan trade?! Doesnt that swap help everybody? Hawks get a quality young center & Teeague insurance, Clippers get a solid & versitile 3/4 tweener (Josh isnt really a 3 or a 4) who can play big or small. Whats the problem?
That would leave the Clipper’s without a true center in Jordan, while having to push Blake Griffin to the 5 in order to keep him and Smith on the floor at the same time(considering Smith’s lack of physicality down low). Atlanta would obviously be the beneficiary if they could manage to swing this trade(Bledsoe is an All-Star in the making and acquiring Jordan would allow the Hawks to stretch Horford to the 4, which would actually make sense given his athleticism). Teague would then become Bledsoe Insurance and the Hawks would have two athletic towers down low to possibly bring “Lob City” down to the Dirty South. But there is literally no way the Clips give up such young talent for an erratic jumpshooting forward like J-Smoove. Atlanta seems doomed to Smith’s fate regardless of what the outcome ends up being.
I agree that the Clippers probably aren’t in the market for Josh, whose skill set is too redundant with Griffin’s. Keep watching for updates, however, as the HawksHoop staff is working on a post exploring a number of trade scenarios.