FINAL
(21-39) 92 – 87 (33-24) 
Key Performers:
A. Horford (ATL): 20 pts, 7 reb, 4 asts, 3 stl, 2 blk
G. Dragic (PHX): 19 pts, 2 reb, 6 asts, 3 stl
[FULL BOX SCORE]
It was your classic Hawks letdown. Atlanta was riding a four-game winning streak thanks in part to some career nights from Al Horford and a hot stretch from Josh Smith and Jeff Teague. Fast forward to Friday night and the Hawks, midway through a nine-game road trip, turned in a sloppy effort which eventually allowed Phoenix to coast to a five-point victory.
Reaction Grades: [assessed 0-10]
Josh Smith: It was a pretty laxidasical effort from Smoove. Not much effort on the offensive end, wasn’t closing out hard on defense and really his only appearance was crashing the boards (10 rebounds). Smith shot 2-of-11 from the field, notched five points, missed all five 3-point attempts he took and turned the ball over five times. He truly shot Atlanta out of the game late in the fourth. 3/10
Al Horford: Coming off career-high games of points and rebounds, Horford couldn’t find his stroke early. He started to turn it on late, shooting 50 percent on the night, but his presence on the defensive end really helped Atlanta stay in this one until the final minutes. 8/10
Kyle Korver: It was a nice bounce back game for Korver, who scored 17 points and grabbed eight rebounds on his way to 51 consecutive games with which he hit a 3-pointer. His defensive awareness and inability to close out on Wesley Johnson virtually gave the game away, though. 6/10
DeShawn Stevenson: His finger popped out of socket early on, he popped it back in himself and came back to hit 2-of-3 attempts. He only played 12 minutes, but was serviceable on the defensive end. 4/10
Jeff Teague: Following a stretch of incredibly aggressive games, it was almost expected for Teague to have somewhat of an off-game. He shot 30 percent, had flashes of aggressive play, but turned the ball over four times and lost Goran Dragic in transition and on pick-and-roll plays. Even worse, he only had one assist in the loss. 3/10
Zaza Pachulia: Battling through an Achilles injury, Pachulia played remarkably well over 25 minutes. His eight points and eight rebounds was one of the best off the bench as he really fought to keep Phoenix’s bigs out of the paint and off the boards. He also did this. 7/10
Ivan Johnson: Another low-minute night for Johnson as the forward played just three minutes, but contributed two points and two rebounds. 3/10
John Jenkins: It was a night to forget from Jenkins, who didn’t seem to be exerting as much effort to get in the offensive flow, missing both of his shots and finishing the night with one point. 2/10
Devin Harris: Harris played more minutes than Teague Friday, and rightfully so. The backup guard finished with 12 points and six assists, doubling the starter’s effort. His defense was also leaps above Teague’s for most of the night. He did have five turnovers though, which meant Atlanta’s primary ball-handlers combined for nine turnovers. 5/10
Dahntay Jones: Defense and energy off the bench in seven minutes is basically what Jones will give night-in and night-out. 2/10
Anthony Tolliver: He came in, hit two treys and had Atlanta fighting down the stretch. Tolliver finished with 11 points and four rebounds. 6/10
Larry Drew: There’s not much else LD could have done to have kept this game competitive. He substituted Tolliver late in the fourth, which was almost the deciding factor in the game’s outcome. His defensive pressure gave the Hawks multiple opportunities to close the deficit, but Drew won’t ever be able to corral Smoove’s shot selection. His substitutions were masterful and Drew shouldn’t be held accountable for this one. 8/10
The opposition: It was a very Phoenix-y game with a good bit of transition baskets, getting the ball up the court fast and half of their team doing the work. The bench showed up Friday, leading the Suns to the big win with the Morris brothers lighting it up and Johnson torching Atlanta. 8/10
Next: Atlanta at Los Angeles Lakers, Sunday, March 3rd
I think Josh may be getting a little jealous of Horford’s recent success, hence the 5 three point attempts.
He’s mad that Al gets to take threes now.
In the 2012-13 season (according to 82games.com), 56% of Josh Smith’s shots have been jump shots while the other 44% have been taken close to the basket. On his jumpers, Smith shoots an effective field goal percentage (a statistic which accounts for the weighted value of three-pointers) of 39.3% for a total of 6.9 points per game. On inside shots, his eFG is 60.3% (about the same as Dwight Howard’s 60.7%) for a total of 8.3 ppg. In addition, Smith’s interior play rewards him with an average of 3.9 free throw attempts per game, which he hits at a rate of 50.5% for a total of 2.0 more points. Overall, this gives him an average of 17.2 ppg – 10.3 of which come from interior play. Respectable enough.
But what if Smith decided to stop shooting jumpers and only take shots close to the basket? What if he only took shots in the area of the floor where he shoots 60.3%?
If we take the 56% of his shots where his eFG is 39.3% – i.e. his jump shots – and turn those into interior shots where his eFG is 60.3%, this translates to an increase in points generated by those shots from 6.9 to 10.6, while also adding an additional 2.5 points from free throws. Add these points to the original 10.3 Smith already scores from his interior play, and the result is an overall increase in Smith’s productivity from 17.2 ppg to 23.4 ppg – a 6.2 point difference.
(For illustrative purposes, here is a compilation of charts showing Smith’s shooting locations in each of the Hawks’ losses this season:
http://imgur.com/a/fj9y4
Note the percentage of missed shots outside of the shaded area – it is even worse for Smith in the Hawks’ losses than in their wins. In losses, Smith has only hit 51 of his 197 jump shots away from the basket – a dismal 30.7% eFG. If all 197 of those shots (8.2 per game) had been taken near the basket at an eFG of 60.3%, it would translate to not just 6.2 but 7.3 extra points per game (with 4.9 coming from the 5.0 from jumpers turned into 9.9, plus 2.4 coming from extra free throws).)
But that’s not the end of the story. Scoring aside, Smith also currently averages 1.9 offensive rebounds per game despite spending over half his time away from the basket. Speculation can only take us so far here, but it’s probably fair to assume that if he spent 100% of his time near the basket, rather than merely 44% of it, the result would be an approximate doubling of his present offensive rebounding rate – that is, an additional 1.9 offensive rebounds per game. Based on the fact that the Hawks average 1.05 points per possession, this increase in offensive rebounding from Smith would translate to an extra 2.0 points per game for the Hawks.
Altogether, this increases our grand total to 8.2 extra points per game (or 9.3 if we only count losses). That’s 8.2 additional points per game if Smith were to play exclusively to his strengths, rather than actively playing to his weaknesses as he does today.
What would this extra 8.2 points mean to the Hawks? As of 3/2/13, the Hawks have lost 12 games by 8 points or fewer. Turning those losses into wins would boost the team’s overall record from 33-24 (4th in the East and 9th in the NBA) to 45-12 – best in the entire league. (And mind you, that’s with Lou Williams still out for the season.)
What would it mean for Smith specifically? Well, let’s just say he wouldn’t have to worry about being left out of the All-Star game anymore. Smith has always been known as an elite defender, but now he would have the offense to match it. And his boosted stat-line of 23.4 points, 4.2 assists, 10.7 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game would arguably be one of the top five in the NBA. Saying that the Hawks would be a top-tier NBA team with such a player on their roster is a grandiose claim, for sure; but imagining a player with such Duncan/Anthony/Howard/Durant-caliber stats playing alongside the likes of Al Horford, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, and Lou Williams – not to mention one of the stronger benches in the NBA to back them up – makes it seem not quite so far-fetched after all.
So what should the Hawks do with this information? Let’s look at the bigger picture.
If this year’s trade deadline was any indication, the Hawks are not prepared to pay Smith a max contract to retain him after this season. If that’s the case, then there is no reason to fear that actually coaching him will hurt his ego and scare him off – after all, even if it does, he’ll probably be leaving anyway if nothing changes, so it would make no difference. With this in mind, then, the way forward is clear: The Hawks’ coaching staff should simply grow a spine and demand that he stop shooting jumpers for the next two months. They should be willing to bend over backwards for him as long as he stays within his game – but the instant he starts hoisting 18-foot bricks, they should send him to the bench. Period. No questions asked. (If Larry Drew cannot bring himself to embrace this brand of “tough love,” he can always use the face-saving pretext that he’s just giving Smith a breather because Smith seems to shoot more long jumpers when he gets tired.)
What’s the worst case scenario? Perhaps Smith will prove once and for all that he really is uncoachable, and the Hawks will cut him loose, finally free of any worry that they might be losing a potential superstar. They already seem prepared to do this, so again, there’s really no risk here. But what about the best case scenario? Perhaps Smith will finally get the message and become the spectacular player that he’s always been capable of being. If this happens, then the Hawks will undoubtedly be willing to pay him a max contract after all – and since they can offer considerably more than any other team, he will likely take it. It’s a win-win situation. So what reason is there not to make it happen?
To Larry Drew: I know you’ve sometimes worried about your reputation in Atlanta. I know you’re wondering whether you’ll even be re-signed next season. But believe me, if you give this a try – just for the next two months – you’ll be the most popular man in town. Hawks fans would give anything to see Josh Smith playing more efficiently. Failing that, we’d be thrilled just to see our coach making a full-out, no-excuses effort to make it happen. So how about it?
Further reading:
http://courtvisionanalytics.com/the-long-two-and-josh-smith/
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/49283/courtvision-the-worst-shooters-so-far
[Disclaimer: Yes, this is all wildly speculative. Yes, there are plenty of factors not accounted for here. And yes, I realize that no player would actually take 100% of their shots from close range. But the point still stands: The Atlanta Hawks would be a far, far better team if Josh Smith would stop shooting so many jumpers. You probably didn’t need a bunch of statistical analysis to tell you that, though.]